Abstract
The article aims to determine the relationship between the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and economic growth in Viet Nam, in which economic growth is measured by gross domestic product growth (GDP growth). The study uses the secondary sources from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam for GDP and “investing.com” for PMI data. The study covers monthly data ranging from October 2014 to June 2024. Cointegration test is used to test long-term relationships of variables and the Granger causality test was conducted to examine the causal relationship between PMI and GDP growth. Our analysis shows that there is a long- run relationship between PMI and GDP growth and a unidirectional causality running from PMI to GDP growth. The significance of the study is to demonstrate that PMI changes can be a reliable indicator in predicting early GDP changes in Vietnam.
Keywords: Purchasing managers’ index, gross domestic products (GDP), GDP growth, economic growth, Granger causality test.
JEL classification:M1, O4, O5, O47.
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Ban biên tập Tạp chí Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Phòng 514, Nhà điều hành, trường Đại học Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Địa chỉ: Phường Tân Thịnh, thành phố Thái Nguyên
Email: tapchikt-qtkd@tueba.edu.vn; Điện thoại: 0208.3903373
