Abstract
This study assesses the impact of international crude oil prices on Vietnam’s economy through various variables such as gross domestic product, import value, interest rates and inflation. The study employs VAR analysis and examines variance decomposition to capture the linear inter-dependencies among the variables. The structural stability tests demonstrate no evidence of structural break in the VAR model, confirming the reliability of the relationships estimated by the VAR model. The results of the cyclical correlation analysis suggest that the international crude oil price fluctuations have no significant impact on the inflation of Vietnam’s economy during the research period. However, this impact lingers after an oil price shock occurs. International crude oil price fluctuations do not cause large impacts on the gross domestic product of Vietnam’s economy and these impacts decrease over time. However, fluctuations in international crude oil prices have quite a large influence on Vietnam’s import activities and for a long time afterwards. International crude oil prices do not have an immediate significant impact on the interest rate level of Vietnam’s economy, but its impact increases a month later when a fluctuation in international crude oil prices occurs.
Keywords: Impact assessment, international crude oil price, GDP, import, interest rate, inflation.
JEL classification: M, G, G15
Để đọc toàn văn vui lòng nhấn vào xem chi tiết.
Ban biên tập Tạp chí Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Phòng 514, Nhà điều hành, trường Đại học Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Địa chỉ: Phường Tân Thịnh, thành phố Thái Nguyên
Email: tapchikt-qtkd@tueba.edu.vn; Điện thoại: 0208.3903373
