Abstract
This study examines the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Vietnamese stock market, represented by the VN Index, using time-series data from 2010–2023. Applying stationarity tests, cointegration tests, and the ARDL model, the findings indicate that in the short term, CPI, WTI oil price, and Brent oil price significantly influence the VN Index, while the USD/VND exchange rate and gold price show no immediate effects. In the long term, CPI negatively affects the VN Index, the USD/VND exchange rate has a mild impact, and Brent oil prices exhibit a nonlinear effect. These findings provide critical implications: Investors should closely monitor inflation and oil prices to adjust their strategies, while policymakers should implement inflation control and exchange rate policies to stabilize the stock market.
Key words: VN Index; macroeconomics; CPI; exchange rate; gold price; oil price; VAR model; ARDL model; time-series analysis.
JEL Classification: E, E31, E3.
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Ban biên tập Tạp chí Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Phòng 514, Nhà điều hành, trường Đại học Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Địa chỉ: Phường Tân Thịnh, thành phố Thái Nguyên
Email: tapchikt-qtkd@tueba.edu.vn; Điện thoại: 0208.3903373
