Abstract
This study examines the impact of macroeconomic factors on Vietnam’s stock price index from January 2010 to December 2024, using 180 monthly observations collected from the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE), the National Statistics Office of Vietnam, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other international financial data sources. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, combined with the bounds testing approach to identify long-run relationships and an Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze short-run and long-run relationships. The results indicate that, in the short run, the exchange rate negatively affects the VN-Index, while oil prices, and the U.S. stock market index (S&P 500) have positive effects. In the long run, the exchange rate and gold prices negatively affect the VN-Index, whereas the S&P have positive effects. The error correction coefficient indicates that approximately 22% of deviations from the long-run equilibrium are corrected each month. Based on these findings, the study proposes policy implications aimed at promoting the efficient development of Vietnam’s stock market.
Keywords: Exchange rate, gold prices, macroeconomic factors, oil prices, S&P 500, VN-Index.
JEL classification: G10, E44, C32.
DOI: 10.63767/TCKT.39.2026.140.149
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Ban biên tập Tạp chí Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Phòng 514, Nhà điều hành, trường Đại học Kinh tế & Quản trị Kinh doanh
Địa chỉ: Phường Tân Thịnh, thành phố Thái Nguyên
Email: tapchikt-qtkd@tueba.edu.vn; Điện thoại: 0208.3903373
